Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
